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The Tripwire Pivotal Corridor Conflicts

Strategic Security Analysis - 2015 n°10

Release Date:

October 2015

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Key Points

  • Within the Tripwire Pivotal Corridor (TPC) are several politically unstable regions: Eastern Ukraine, the Middle East, the Great Lakes region of East Central Africa and Afghanistan/Pakistan.
  • The conflict in Eastern Ukraine has resulted in a geopolitical stand-off between Russia and Western actors such as the United States, the European Union and NATO. If left to escalate, this standoff could expand to countries on the EU’s eastern border.
  • The Middle East region can be broken down into different “pivotal” conflicts. This paper analyses the Syrian Civil War, the rise of ISIS, the collapse of the Yemeni government, and the ever-present Israeli-Palestinian conflict as geopolitically significant events.
  • East Central Africa is another node of geostrategic interest, as several regional powers are looking to assert and protect their influence in the mineral rich region, where porous borders and weak central governments have made it easy for traffickers and armed groups to proliferate.
  • Although NATO officially ended its combat mission in Afghanistan at the end of 2014, it is probable that the US will continue to provide substantial assistance and training to Afghan security forces.