"The likelihood that Armenians and Azerbaijanis will clash over Nagorno-Karabakh in the next twelve months is high," says former GCSP Executive in Residence Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh in a recent Council on Foreign Relations Contingency Planning Memorandum.
The Nagorno-Karabakh region is an autonomous region, which has been contested between Azerbaijan and Armenia since 1988. War and military clashes have followed in the years since the region's declaration of independence from the Soviet Union, and a renewed conflict now could spark dangerous tensions between NATO-allied Turkey, Russia and Iran. Oil and gas pipelines in the region only complicate a delicate situation which involves many overlapping regional interests.
Following the memorandum, Amb Cavanaugh gave an interview with Azeri.Today going into further depth.