Developing Anticipatory Governance Capacities in Ministries of Foreign Affairs

SSA-34

Developing Anticipatory Governance Capacities in Ministries of Foreign Affairs

By Oliver Jütersonke and Emily Munro

Key points

  • Using strategic foresight in ministries of foreign affairs (MFAs) involves
    employing a portfolio of approaches for anticipating futures across different
    time horizons, as part of what is institutionally becoming known
    as anticipatory governance.
  • This approach turns the narrative that MFAs usually only react to the
    current volatile and complex environment characterised by crises such
    as climate change, health pandemics, and inter-state war into a proactive
    one whereby foreign policy decision-makers can strategically prepare for
    what may lie ahead.
  • Building this capacity in MFAs requires generating and continuously readjusting
    a sustained demand for anticipatory and foresight-related products
    and outputs so that it is in line with the timely and convincing supply of
    such deliverables.
  • Taken together, nurturing this enabling environment for the pursuit of
    strategic foresight in MFAs requires attention to three key elements:
    (1) the organisational parameters within which activities are carried out
    (the ‘where’); (2) the skills and resources required (the ‘who’); and (3) the
    concrete processes and activities involved (the ‘what’ and ‘how’).
  • For MFAs to consolidate these aspects they will need to identify weak
    points to work on and strengths to exploit. Creating strategic value, establishing
    the necessary arrangements, fostering appropriate connections,
    and integrating such efforts will take time, and adjustments are to be
    expected as the equilibrium between demand and supply is constantly
    recalibrated in response to changing circumstances.

Oliver Jütersonke is an independent researcher, knowledge broker and
conflict analyst with over 15 years of professional experience in sub-Saharan
Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. His work focuses on the conceptualisation
and assessment of projects and programming, the facilitation of
organisational reflection processes, and the design and delivery of training
curriculums and analytical tools for policy practitioners – including in the
area of strategic anticipation.

Emily Munro is Head of Strategic Anticipation and a Senior Advisor, Research
and Policy Advice at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. She works with governments
and organisations around the world to foster more forward-thinking
approaches to peace and security. She has worked on strategic foresight
with partners such as the UN Executive Office of the Secretary-General and
the International Committee of the Red Cross, and with governments in Asia,
Europe, and the Middle East.

Disclaimer: The views, information and opinions expressed in this publication are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the GCSP or the members of its Foundation Council. The GCSP is not responsible for the accuracy of the information.