- This event is hybrid. It will take place at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and online.
- The event will be livestreamed, recorded and photographed and may be shared publicly on the GCSP channels.
France, Germany, and the UK — Europe’s industrial powerhouses — are under growing pressure, alongside other economies such as Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands, which rely heavily on high-value manufacturing and exports. China’s manufacturing juggernaut, once synonymous with low-cost consumer goods, has now pivoted aggressively into sectors that have long defined European prosperity: automobiles, advanced machinery, batteries, solar technology, steel, and chemicals.
The numbers are stark. By late 2025, Germany’s annual trade deficit with China approached $100 billion, while the EU as a whole recorded a goods trade deficit exceeding €290 billion. French industries, from aerospace to renewable energy, feel the pressure, and the UK faces mounting challenges in high-tech manufacturing. Meanwhile, Chinese EV giant BYD plans 2,000 European stores by late 2026. China now controls more than 80% of global solar production and roughly 75% of battery manufacturing.
At the same time, Europe is squeezed by U.S. economic policies: the 2025 tariffs on European steel, aluminum, and select high-tech goods have slowed exports to America, compounding the effects of Chinese overcapacity. European industries are caught between two economic giants, with no easy escape.
Is Europe witnessing the gradual hollowing-out of its industrial base under China’s state-backed expansion? Or is the European economy more resilient than these concerns suggest — capable of adapting, innovating, and defending its competitive edge?
Does China’s trajectory demand a fundamental rethink of European industrial strategy — from state aid to strategic autonomy? Or should Europe resist protectionist reflexes and trust in open markets to correct distortions?
At this Geneva Security Debate in cooperation with the Asia Society Switzerland, we confront a defining question for Europe’s prosperity and geopolitical influence: how should Europe navigate an era where economic competition has become inseparable from strategic power?
Speakers
- James Crabtree, TOY Senior Fellow at Asia Society Switzerland; Distinguished Visiting Fellow at ECFR; former executive director of IISS in Asia
- Camille Boullenois, Associate Director with Rhodium Group
- Yanmei Xie, MERICS and 2026 TOY Senior Fellow
Moderator
- Dr Christina Schori Liang, Head of Counterterrorism and Preventing Violent Extremism, GCSP