Enabling Peace: The Potential Use of Technology for Ceasefire Monitoring in Ukraine

Executive summary

• The size of the territory that may have to be monitored as part of a ceasefire in Ukraine could be massive, including a more than 1,000-kilometre front line.
• Technology can be a key enabler of ceasefire monitoring by producing a clearer, more accurate and comprehensive picture of what is going on.
• A multi-layered approach should be used on land, in the air and at sea, drawing on a range of technological options.
• The effective use of technology can reduce the number of human monitors needed for ceasefire monitoring and increase both the range of possible monitoring and the accuracy of related information.
• Technology should be regarded as a complement to human monitors, not a replacement for them.
• Using technology to strengthen compliance is only credible if there is a mechanism to follow up on any violations of the ceasefire.
• The use of technology for ceasefire monitoring in Ukraine could generate a vast amount of information. The management and security of this information will be crucial and will require an integrated information management system that involves and is trusted by the conflict parties.
• Third parties may be necessary to deploy and operate technology for ceasefire monitoring and for analysing and managing the information gathered by it. The type of technological assets that can be used for monitoring will play a vital role in determining the composition of an international mission. For example, in addition to civilian monitors, it may be necessary to deploy
  military units and/or private contractors who have the necessary skills and equipment.
• What is technically possible is not always politically possible. The use of technology for ceasefire monitoring will require the consent of the parties and agreed modalities. The use of technology by third-party monitors will have to be spelled out in detail.
• Experience shows that technology used for ceasefire monitoring may be targeted by the parties. The risk of such violations should be mitigated through agreed rules of engagement and agreed procedures for regulating the use of UAVs over a buffer zone.
• Since Russia and Ukraine have been engaged in cyber warfare, a ceasefire should include steps to reduce cyber attacks.