A Global Policy Perspective on Offensive Cyberspace Operations

Over the past decade, offensive cyberspace operations have expanded rapidly and reshaped international security. Once limited to a few major powers, currently dozens of states and some non-state actors possess these capabilities, reflecting the normalisation of cyberspace offensive capacity across the international system. This diffusion erodes the boundary between peace and conflict and complicates deterrence by introducing ambiguity, shortened decision cycles, and a higher risk of miscalculation. 

At a time of increasing geopolitical competition, understanding how to manage the global spread of offensive cyberspace capabilities is vital to sustaining strategic stability and preventing the escalation of cyberspace-related crises. This policy brief therefore asks how states can reduce the risks of miscalculation and escalation while preserving stability and international norms in cyberspace. It argues that stability can be strengthened through greater transparency, stronger legal and normative frameworks, and practical multistakeholder cooperation. The brief proceeds by tracing the diffusion of offensive cyberspace operations, analysing escalation dynamics, examining policy and legal gaps, and concluding with recommendations for global cooperation.