Africa’s Growing Global Relevance

As global power becomes more diffuse, in an increasingly fragmented world, the African continent is gaining on strategic relevance. While several African economies are projected to rank among the world’s fastest growing in the coming years, parts of the continent are gaining economic and diplomatic prominence amid the changing global alignments.  

Shaped by their colonial history and enduring structural challenges, African countries are deepening engagement with increasingly competitive global powers such as China and Russia to overcome the challenges of the current polycrisis context. At the same time, the rise of minilateralism allows the development of new diplomatic coalitions, leading Africa to play a pivotal role in shaping geopolitical dynamics of the 21st century. These changing relationships create a conducive environment to benefit from new opportunities allowing African states to expand their influence and redefine their role in global governance.

Against this backdrop, the GCSP Alumni & Community Engagement Office in partnership with its Ethiopian hub convened some 90 GCSP Alumni from around the world for a virtual discussion entitled “Africa Today – New Geopolitics and Global Impact” on May 7, 2026. 

Conceptualised in collaboration with Mr Mulualem Yakob Ayalew, Hub Leader of the GCSP Alumni & Community Hub in Ethiopia and moderated by Ms Shewit Gebrehiwot Feleke, member of the Ethiopia Hub, the discussion brought together two distinguished experts of the GCSP Global Fellowship Initiative:

• Dr Peter Batchelor, Associate Fellow at the GCSP and Director of Partnership and Advocacy at Principles for Peace Foundation
• Dr Gervais Rufyikiri, Executive-in-Residence Fellow at the GCSP and former Vice-President of Burundi

Some takeaways:

1. An unstable environment

The emergence of Africa’s geopolitical relevance happens in a context of polycrisis amid continental challenges related to migration pressures, climate change, violent extremism, and ongoing conflicts. These long-term challenges combined with the impacts of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East create an unstable environment. Nevertheless, the overlapping crises create both constraints and strategic openings for African countries.

2. The Militarisation at the Expense of Development

A growing share of public spending is being redirected towards defence, while official development assistance (ODA) has drastically declined in the past years. The shift raises concerns about short-term stabilisation and long-term development priorities.

3. The Territory of New Markets

Africa’s strong demographic growth has made it the continent with the youngest population in the world, creating significant opportunities for the expansion of new markets. In particular, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) provides a conducive environment for the development of consumer markets and investment opportunities across the continent.

4. A Promising Landscape for Development

The African continent benefits from substantial rare earth resources and is estimated to hold around 30% of the world’s critical minerals, giving it a considerable strategic advantage. The development of artificial intelligence and other technological innovations is opening pathways toward greater economic diversification. In addition, the steady influx of investment from major global economies, including the United Arab Emirates, offers significant new opportunities for African countries.

5. The Advantage of New Coalitions

The emergence of new alliances such as BRICS creates opportunities for the African continent to strengthen its position in an increasingly polarised world. This evolving global distribution of power enables African countries to foster new partnerships and projects within the frameworks of both the African Union and the United Nations.

6. A Dual Vision for the Future

Two likely scenarios can be deducted from this positive setting:

• A pessimistic scenario: Africa’s wealth in critical resources could lead to renewed control by Western powers, creating a new form of dependence for the continent. In this case, a lack of effective coordination among African countries could result in Africa remaining a passive actor.
• An optimistic scenario: African countries could take advantage of the renewed interest of Western powers in their resources by developing common strategies and policies that go beyond national interests. Greater unity and stronger geopolitical coordination would position Africa as an active global actor.

The discussion underscored the resilience of the African continent, which has already experienced substantial economic recovery and significant post-conflict reconciliation efforts. The key remaining question is whether this development could lead to renewed dependence on Western powers.