Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO:

What are frozen conflicts? Did you know that over 3 million people living in Eurasia today are affected by frozen conflicts? Their lives have been frozen in these conditions of political uncertainty and insecurity. Because while these armed conflicts have been suspended, no peace treaties have been agreed upon to permanently end them.

Their impact and more, today on Trade for Peace. Welcome to Trade for Peace, brought to you by the WTO’s Trade for Peace programme. I am Axel Addy, former chief negotiator of Liberia’s accession to the WTO and founding member of the Trade for Peace Program. Trade for Peace is a 30-minute podcast in conversation with Trade for Peace champions, global policymakers, entrepreneurs and innovators committed to promoting trade as a key ingredient for lasting peace. Join us in our bi-monthly podcast as we discuss how trade is contributing to sustainable peace in fragile and conflict-affected countries. Welcome to Trade for Peace.

All of us here at the Trade for Peace team would like to say thank you to all of you who have listened to our episodes over the last season last year and would like to extend another invitation to all of you to make suggestions on topics and guests you would like to see featured in this season's podcast.

In today's episode “Defrosting Frozen Conflicts: The Role of Trade”, we are honoured to have with us Ambassador Thomas Greminger. Thomas is the Director of the Geneva Center for Security Policy, the GCSP. He is also the former Secretary-General of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the OSCE.

Thomas, thank you for joining us today and Happy New Year to you.     

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP:

Thank you so much. Great to be with you, Axel, and thanks for having me.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO:

It's a pleasure to have you. So how did you spend your holidays?

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP:

Well, I spent Christmas and New Year with my family, my daughters, my father, partly in Bern, partly in Geneva. In between the years, I did a bit of skiing in Andermatt and that's basically it. And then work picked up already the first week of January, when I had the privilege of being invited to Malta by the Maltese Minister of Foreign Affairs. And the good thing about starting the year was to combine work consultations on the European security, Mediterranean security with a bit of sightseeing on this beautiful island.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO:

Fantastic, if you your daughters would have to rate your skiing, how would you rate it?

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP:

I'm a pretty good skier.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO:

Thomas, today we want to talk about defrosting frozen conflicts. These are protracted conflicts, and I know you spend a huge part of your career focused on the Ukrainian crisis. First of all, I would like us to talk a bit about your background and what led you to this career path. What was the turning point that led you to focus on this career path?

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP:

I would say it started quite early when I was an exchange student as a 17-year-old to a US high school. I started to develop this interest in issues related to international relations, peace, security and then gradually also conflict resolution. And then, in my university studies, I eventually also specialized towards the end on military history. I did a PhD in military history, and in parallel, I served as a Reserve Officer in the Swiss Armed Forces. At the end, I was a Lieutenant Colonel General Staff. So, there is also here a link to security. But then, professionally, I think seriously, it began in 2002 when I became the Deputy Director of the Human Security Department of the Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

This Department deals with the Swiss contribution to peace processes around the globe, be it mediation, facilitation and making expertise available in terms of power-sharing, dealing with the past, etc. Then, in 2010, I ventured into European security by being appointed Permanent Representative of Switzerland to International Organizations, to the UN, and the OSCE in Vienna. And then, by chance in Switzerland, was appointed Chair of the OSCE in 2014. That happened to be the year of the crisis in and around Ukraine. I chaired the Permanent Council of the OSCE, so I was closely involved in crisis management, trying to identify measures to de-escalate the conflict. I negotiated the mandate of the Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine of the OSCE, which is today's flagship operation of the OSCE.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO:

Thank you, and I know of being involved in these protracted conflicts as a negotiator, it is an endeavour to manage the expectations from all factions. One of my first jobs was working with the Commission, dealing with the disarmament process in Liberia, and I know the government struggled to get the warring factions around the table. You have so many different peace accords that never came to fruition until the Accra Peace Accord because it's such a high expectation of diverging views, and many of them are economically driven. In Liberia, warring factions control the resource-rich areas, and they weren’t willing to let go of those assets so easily. But they were able to come to an agreement with the Accra Peace Accord.

So, it is an exercise in managing expectations. What do you see, given the economic elements that tend to fuel these protracted conflicts, what do you see as a possible role for the WTO system to contribute to ongoing peace efforts in places like Ukraine?

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP:

I think there are a number of things, and perhaps it's very important to also note that trade can play an essential role in conflict prevention by contributing to broad-based growth, by making sure that there is revenue for people, and this clearly can have a stabilising effect on a society that also would partly help to offset grievances, underscore partly offset grievances. Similarly, I would also argue that trade can have an important role in post-conflict rehabilitation and post-conflict stabilisation. In particular, if trade creates broad-based gross effects and benefits for broader population segments and not only for the elite.

But now coming to protracted conflicts, ongoing conflicts, as you allude to, there is a huge potential for using trade as a confidence-building measure to create an environment that would be more enabling for conflict resolution. I think that is particularly interesting in situations where sides are not yet ready to advance on status-related issues, to move towards settling the conflict. There you have spaces to do things that make a difference for the populations on the ground. And by implementing these kinds of measures, you can, as the term indicates, build confidence, and build trust.

That then again, would normally make it easier to move, to advance on the more principled settlement-related issues. To illustrate that, let's imagine together there is progress in the months to come in implementing the Minsk agreements in the Donbas. And just think of for instance, lifting the trade blockade, launching measures that would again allow trade relations, economic cooperation over the line of contact would also have a tremendous effect also in trying to rebuild this sense of belonging together, belonging to the same Ukraine.

And you could argue similarly for other protracted conflicts like Georgia, Transnistria. For instance, in the Transnistrian settlement process, we have seen concrete measures that had a great impact. For example, by agreeing to reopen a bridge that had been closed for decades. And that reopened bridge then again allowed trading over the line of contact that brought communities on both sides together. And then, last but not least, let's look at what is happening in the South Caucasus around Nagorno-Karabakh, where we have an agreement in the ceasefire accord to open up the transport corridors, to open up borders. And I think this cold have a tremendous impact, not only economically, for instance, bring a country like Armenia out of its isolation, but it would also contribute to providing the ground then to discuss more constructively the settlement-related issues.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO:

These are excellent examples. I remember your conversation quite well with Ambassador Tudor Ulianovschi about this confidence-building mechanism. Now, with this rise of nationalism across the region, is this actually going to work to reduce these protracted conflicts again?

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP:

It's a fact that we have these nationalist trends; we have these populist trends. They are part of the picture when we talk about this crisis of multilateralism. These are also political trends that we would love to control, but we cannot, or only to an extent. But then, I would also be confident that we at international organisations, we can offer narratives, we can offer arguments for leaders that are ready to overcome these nationalist and populist trends, that are ready to go for more constructive policies, that are ready to acknowledge that basically all major challenges of the 21st century can only be successfully addressed by international cooperation, by working together, by cooperative approaches. This is valid, I guess, for issues around trade. It's also, of course, very much true for my domain, the security domain.

I think all measures can only be successfully addressed by international cooperation. And we need arguments, we need to make a business case for this mindset with this approach. But at the end of the day, you also need leaders who take it up, that use these narratives.

And perhaps, last but not least, and I insist on this point. We also have to make sure on our side that our organisations remain fit for purpose, reform them to the needs of the 21st century, and make sure that they can deliver what Member States expect. And even in challenging circumstances, there is always a latitude to reform to make sure that we remain or that we become fit for purpose as an international organisation.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO:

Absolutely. And there are views that the WTO must operate within its core mandate and that these issues of discussions around health and peace sort of a broader interpretation of the role of the World Trade Organization. In your view, how do you see a transformed WTO that is fit for purpose in terms of today's reality?

How do you see the convergence of the trade and peace community in trying to tackle some of these wicked challenges, as you just mentioned?

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP:

I think we really need to acknowledge that all these major challenges that we currently face are interrelated.

And if we want to come up with agendas, with responses that work, that impact, that convince the nationalists, that perhaps international cooperation is better than trying to mottle through nationally. But, in the end, we need to think and act holistically and bring these aspects together.

And I think that trade and peace agenda is a case in point, is a strong argument for doing exactly that. And we need international organisations that are capable of looking ahead that have a strategic foresight capacity, that can anticipate.

And then, at the end of the day, it’s the Member States that define what may be done and what not and, of course, approves the budgets. At the very end of the day, it's the budgets that allow us or wouldn’t allow us to do something.

But I think it's important that international organisations and I think there is evidence that international organisations that have this strategic foresight capacity, that can look ahead and suggest responses, answers to Member States are more resilient than organisations that wouldn't have them.

And you know, I'm not a WTO expert, but I had exactly the same challenge as a Secretary-General of the OSCE. When I realized that we were absorbed by the daily needs of responding to the daily challenges of running the organisation but had no capacity to think ahead, to reflect what's going to be in two or three years. For example, what are the security challenges we will have to deal with in the next five to ten years? Then obviously, you cannot suggest to Member States what needs to be done, what capacities will need to be expanded, and I think that's an essential capacity of an international organisation. And look, at the end of today, it's not that costly if you compare it to the benefits you can produce for Member States.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO:

Wow, Thomas, thank you for this rich and in-depth insight in terms of defrosting protracted conflict. Now, I would like to switch it up, and we have a new segment called “Rapid Fire”. This is by popular demand, and so we want to get to know you a little better.

And so, I'm going to ask you five questions to which you have ten seconds to respond. Here we go: Are you a tea or coffee guy?

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP:

Coffee, to wake up in the morning and to remain awake during the day.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO:

Fantastic, and what was the last book you read

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP:

Right now, it's my second attempt at reading Tolstoy's War and Peace.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO: I have it here in my background, and I still haven't gotten to it yet.

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP: It's my second attempt, too. I hope this time is successful, but it's exciting stuff.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO: Yes. And Vienna or Geneva, what’s your favourite city?

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP: Clearly, Vienna. It might be different in a couple of years, but now clearly, Vienna.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO: And one of the resolutions for 2022?

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP: Well, to use Geneva better as an excellent location to go skiing over the weekend.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO: And one thing you would like to see happening in 2022?

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP: I would want to get a couple of dialogue processes off the ground within the next couple of months, despite COVID, that would try to give a significant, meaningful response to the current security challenges. For instance, in supporting the Strategic Stability Dialogue, but also, for instance, in supporting the process that could lead us to a decent celebration of the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Accord in 2025.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO: Wonderful, thank you. I too in 2022, I would like to see more entrepreneurs, more operators, and policy makers that are working on the front lines. So, Thomas, if you have any great suggestions of people working on these issues that are on the front line doing some amazing things, we want to encourage you to make those recommendations or there are topics we would like to encourage you to make those suggestions. My 2022 resolution, I played tennis for over 30 years and had a bad fall, so I switched to golf. I am a horrible golfer. It is quite a humbling sport, but I hope to improve my scoring this year.

Well, Thomas. It has been quite an enriching discussion. I always like to end our podcast with one last question. We now have listeners from all over the world, in over 100 countries are tuning into this podcast, so I would like you to conclude: What does Trade for Peace mean to you and why?

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP: Well, we discussed about trade as an enormous potential for confidence-building in peace processes. Now, my call will be that we need more political will, more political commitment to give an impose to these trade agendas over the concerns you have in these peace processes. Because the potential benefits are so important.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO: Fantastic. So political will is what you're pushing.

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP: Political will for a trade agenda.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO: Fantastic. That was Ambassador Thomas Greminger, Director of the Geneva Center for Security Policy. Thomas, thank you for joining us today on Trade for Peace.

Ambassador Thomas Greminger, GCSP: You're most welcome. Thank you for your attention and your patience.

Mr. Axel M Addy, WTO: And to our listeners, may you have a wonderful year ahead. And thank you for tuning into today's episode “Defrosting Frozen Conflict: The Role of Trade”. Now, don't forget to follow us on our social media channels. We are present on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn as Trade for Peace. I am your host, Axel Addy.

Disclaimer: This podcast was originally published by Trade for Peace Podcast here.