The Impact of COVID-19 on the Military Dynamics in Northern Syria

Surkov Low

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Military Dynamics in Northern Syria

By Dr Nikolay Surkov, Senior Research Fellow at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO)

Part of the Syria Transition Challenges Project

Measures taken by the administration and the population against COVID-19 in Idlib have been insufficient. Although local health authorities were aware of dangers, they lacked the capacity to influence political and military decision-makers. Therefore, COVID-19 did not have a considerable impact on the daily life of the population and training of military groups. People still convened in open spaces and held closed meetings; markets were crowded and without adequate protection measures; mosques were crowded during the month of Ramadan and celebrations were performed as usual. As escalation and new political/social dynamics now dominate Idlib’s current agenda after the Moscow agreement, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a priority for the actors on the ground. This contribution aims to examine the activities of HTS in the context of the pandemicflict.

The ideas expressed are of the author’s not the publisher

Published in June 2020

All rights reserved to GCSP

Dr. Nikolay Surkov is a Senior Research Fellow at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), an Associate Professor at the Chair or Oriental Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) and a Middle East Expert at the Russian International Affairs Council. He was also a staff writer and an editor in various Russian newspapers (such as the Rossiyskaya Gazeta and the Izvestia) covering foreign policy and military affairs. After a Master’s in Oriental Studies, Dr. Surkov did a PhD on International Politics at the Institute of Asian and African Studies at the Moscow State University. His fields of interest include foreign and domestic policy of the Arab States, security situation in the Middle East, Russian and US policy in this region. Dr Surkov speaks Russian, English French and Arabic.