Nuclear Arms Control Needs a New Start

Abstract

The expiry of New START has left the world's two largest nuclear powers without legally binding limits on their strategic arsenals, highlighting the broader decline of nuclear arms control and disarmament diplomacy. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, declining trust among states, and the emergence of disruptive technologies in the domains of artificial intelligence, cyber, and outer space are creating new risks of nuclear escalation. This article argues that existing forums for nuclear dialogue are no longer functioning effectively and that traditional approaches to arms control are ill-suited to today's multipolar security environment. In the absence of near-term political momentum for formal negotiations, the article proposes a renewed focus on understanding and reducing multi-domain nuclear escalation risks. It highlights the value of developing a new generation of arms control experts through Track 2 dialogue among nuclear-armed states to build common understandings and support future official level talks. By fostering innovative approaches to risk reduction and strategic stability, these efforts could help create the conditions necessary for a new era of nuclear arms control.