Unity or Fragmentation? European Defence Modernisation, Small-States’ Strategies, and the EU Drone Wall

Key points

• Europe’s defence modernisation initiatives accelerated sharply after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, driving significant increases in spending and new joint initiatives. However, the gap between technical integration and political cohesion remains the central obstacle to genuine European strategic autonomy, i.e. the capacity of European states to develop and sustain independent defence capabilities and act collectively without excessive reliance on external actors.
• Strategic autonomy is not a binary condition. In domains such as counter-uncrewed aerial systems, small frontline states are building genuine operational autonomy. In other domains such as strategic airlift, long-range strike, and space-based intelligence, dependence on the United States remains profound.
• Small states are not peripheral to EU strategic autonomy, but among its primary drivers, operating through operational pioneering, industrial enabling, and institutional shaping even when EU-wide consensus is absent. 
• The EU Drone Wall illustrates both the potential and limits of coordinated European defence. Led by small frontline states, it shows how bilateral industrial partnerships can advance operational capability more rapidly than EU-wide institutional processes, but also how political divisions constrain integration.