Developing Anticipatory Governance Capacities in Ministries of Foreign Affairs

Key points

• Using strategic foresight in ministries of foreign affairs (MFAs) involves
  employing a portfolio of approaches for anticipating futures across different
  time horizons, as part of what is institutionally becoming known
  as anticipatory governance.
• This approach turns the narrative that MFAs usually only react to the
  current volatile and complex environment characterised by crises such
  as climate change, health pandemics, and inter-state war into a proactive
  one whereby foreign policy decision-makers can strategically prepare for
  what may lie ahead.
• Building this capacity in MFAs requires generating and continuously readjusting
  a sustained demand for anticipatory and foresight-related products
  and outputs so that it is in line with the timely and convincing supply of
  such deliverables.
• Taken together, nurturing this enabling environment for the pursuit of
  strategic foresight in MFAs requires attention to three key elements:
  (1) the organisational parameters within which activities are carried out
  (the ‘where’); (2) the skills and resources required (the ‘who’); and (3) the
  concrete processes and activities involved (the ‘what’ and ‘how’).
• For MFAs to consolidate these aspects they will need to identify weak
  points to work on and strengths to exploit. Creating strategic value, establishing
  the necessary arrangements, fostering appropriate connections,
  and integrating such efforts will take time, and adjustments are to be
  expected as the equilibrium between demand and supply is constantly
  recalibrated in response to changing circumstances.