Outlook and Opportunities in the MENA Region

This study comprises three parts. First, the thematic analysis offers a comprehensive overview of the main trends and key issues shaping the immediate, medium-term, and long-term outlook for the MENA region. The analysis starts with an examination of selected trends and their potential implications at the sub-regional level, encompassing North Africa, the Near East, the Arabian Peninsula, and Iran. This is followed by a focused analysis of three thematic priority areas: peace, security, and human rights; migration and protecting populations in need; and sustainable development and climate change. Second, expert insights that arose during a workshop, held at the GCSP in collaboration with Centre on Conflict, Development and Peacebuilding, are summarized and the main analytical elements are presented following the same thematic priority areas. Third, the final section presents a list of the main policy recommendations resulting from the expert workshop.

It is important to note that on 7 October, just one day after the workshop concluded, the status quo in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories drastically changed, putting populations in both countries (and in neighboring countries) at greater risk of immediate violence. The fluid crisis remains in flux and highly uncertain but is sure to have serious near-/medium-/long-term implications for the entire region and at all levels. This study reflects the pre-7 October recommendations that were made by experts during workshop discussions only. It has not been updated to account for these ongoing developments.