Securing the New Resource Frontier: Critical Minerals in an Era of Great‑Power Rivalry

Key points

• Critical minerals have become the 21st-century “oil”. Lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and other inputs for clean energy, semiconductors, and defence systems are now explicit levers of state power, as shown by China’s 2024- 2025 export controls and the scramble by the United States and its allies to secure alternative supplies.
• Geology drives geopolitics. These minerals are geologically fixed and highly concentrated (e.g. 70% of cobalt supplies come from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), while >80% of rare earth refining occurs in China), thrusting mostly developing producers into the centre of greatpower rivalry and exposing consumers to single-point failures.
• Diversification is stalling. Despite headline strategies, the top three countries now hold 86% of global refining capacity (up from 82% in 2020) and 77% of mining output. High capital costs, long lead times, and price volatility keep new entrants and new regions out of the market.
• Chokepoints create security risks. Export bans, accidents or conflict at any dominant node could trigger price spikes of 500- 0,000%, derail the energy transition and disrupt defence supply chains. Local instability, corruption and resource nationalism in producer states amplify this threat.
• Mineral competition is spilling into conflict zones. Examples range from Africa Corps-guarded mines in insurgency-afflicted African countries1 to rare earth fields in Kachin state amid Myanmar’s civil war and mineral-rich territories in war-torn Ukraine, illustrating how control of mineral deposits can fuel proxy struggles and interstate tensions.
• Middle powers are emerging as swing players in the competition for critical minerals. Countries such as Kazakhstan, Indonesia, and Brazil use “multi-alignment” policies to host multibloc investment, dilute monopolies, and promote rules-based trade – potentially protecting themselves from great-power coercion and promoting the diversification of critical minerals supply chains.