Strategic Foresight in Ministries of Foreign Affairs

GCSP Research Project – Strategic Foresight in Ministries of Foreign Affairs


The Context

Strategic foresight can help governments to make better sense of the future in view of making more effective decisions in an uncertain and rapidly changing world. Anticipatory governance and foresight are becoming more prominent in a number of countries around the globe. Strategic foresight can be applied to and can be used as a tool for a broad variety of issues, including peace and security-related topics. In order to better anticipate emerging issues and geopolitical developments, ministries of foreign affairs are building institutional capacities in this area. This can relate specifically to strategic foresight or more generally to political contingency planning or horizon scanning activities.


The Aim of the Project

This research project explores how ministries of foreign affairs use strategic foresight and other anticipatory practices. It notably investigates what methods and tools are being employed to conduct long-term planning in ministries of foreign affairs around the world. Good practices are identified by analysing several countries and their ministries of foreign affairs in terms of institutional foresight capacities and their integration into decision-making. These findings are then compiled to better understand current trends in long-term planning, including the use of strategic foresight, in ministries of foreign affairs.


The Research Team

Emily MunroEmily Munro, Head of Strategic Anticipation, GCSP and Project Lead

Emily Munro heads the work on strategic anticipation and leads dialogue projects on emerging security issues at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP). She works with governments and organisations around the world to foster more forward-thinking approaches to international security policy. She directed the Centre’s New Issues in Security Course (NISC) from 2017 to 2019 and is a frequent contributor to executive education programmes. Emily has over 18 years of experience in international security including at the International Organization for Migration (Geneva), the Global Forum for Health Research (Geneva) and the Liu Institute for Global Issues at the University of British Columbia (Vancouver, BC, Canada). Read the full bio here

Arthur Lusenti Dr Oliver Jütersonke, Project Research Advisor

Oliver Jütersonke is an independent researcher, knowledge broker, and conflict analyst with over 15 years of professional experience in sub-Saharan Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. He focuses on the conceptualisation and assessment of projects and programming, the facilitation of organisational reflection processes, and the design and delivery of training curriculums and analytical tools for policy practitioners – including in the area of strategic anticipation. He is President of Coginta, a Swiss NGO working in the fields of security sector governance, crime prevention and social cohesion. He also serves on the Ethics Review Board of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). Previously, he was Head of Research at the Centre on Conflict, Development and Peacebuilding at the Geneva Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies.

Tobias KnappeTobias Knappe, Assistant Programme Officer, GCSP and Project Coordinator

Tobias Knappe is an Assistant Programme Officer working with the Strategic Anticipation Cluster and the Global Support Group. Before GCSP, he worked for the chairman of a parliamentary group in the German Bundestag as well as a member of the European Parliament. In addition, he worked for the EU Liaison Office of Freie Universität Berlin and the International Organization for Migration’s regional office in Vienna. His research focus areas include security policy, global governance and strategic foresight. He holds degrees in Global Affairs and International Affairs from a joint master’s programme between the University of Toronto and the Hertie School and a bachelor’s in Political Science from Freie Universität Berlin.


The research project reached its conclusion in December 2023. As part of this project, the GCSP published a comprehensive Strategic Security Analysis titled ‘Developing Anticipatory Governance Capacities in Ministries of Foreign Affairs’.


To learn more about the Strategic Anticipation Cluster click here.